It's starting to feel like Riot just doesn't want jungle to be an impactful role with high agency. The DH changes were brutal and massively nerfed many carry junglers in terms of scaling (while also reducing the skill required dramatically). The camp start options have also been reduced and XP has been nerfed multiple times. Now Red Smite is being gutted too and from what I'm reading, that's not even the full extent of the jungle nerfs planned. Making Red Smite 2 seconds as well as removing the ability to reveal is going to be a clear overnerf unless Ignite/Exhaust etc. are also touched.
I get it, jungle is whined about more than other roles because most players are delusional and have difficulty taking responsibility for/evaluating their own play. There are 4 people laning and there's only 1 jungler so they're an easy target. Since the majority are ignorant of jungling, they exist in an echochamber and just resort to ridiculous memes like "better jg wins". It's an inevitable bubble because of the numbers disparity and lack of exposure. I remember how much hashinshin whined about jungle and how simplistic his vision of jungling was. It's entertaining to watch his rants but yet when he made serious efforts to play jungle with his style, his results were abysmal.
Players think jungle exists in a vacuum. I've literally been blamed for not getting dragons when we had 3 hard losing lanes and no map control. In truth, jungle is one of the most team dependent roles and has nowhere near the agency people claim. This role is frustrating to play more than any other role, including support. At least in the other roles you can feel some satisfaction from doing well in your lane, anticipating pressure well and reacting to it etc. but for junglers, some games are just doomed. The life is just sucked out of it when you have every lane lose in the first few minutes. You endup behind in levels, behind in gold, having no vision and constantly invaded/ambushed with barely any hope of getting back into the game. You are made worthless with no real fault of your own. Luckily, games are rarely such a stomp. Even if it's 0 5 at 5 minutes, there tends to be at least one even lane. Still, the outcome as a jungler and your influence is often highly dependent on who dice-rolled the better team. Playing a mid like Cass or Kass, I feel that games are far more carryable from large deficits than when I play jungle. The same goes for playing ADC if I can get a sizeable lead.
Most of what causes people to think jungle is too strong is a consequence of poor play. Instead of hand holding or treating this as a fact just because it's uttered by a majority, how about we face the reality that SQ players respond terribly to pressure? It's a matter of education, not of the role being imbalanced. People die to ganks they shouldn't and position in ways that make no sense with even rudimentary understanding of jungle pathing. I've lost count of how many top laners know the jungle start and the standard timings but die to level 3 ganks anyway even when pinged 20 seconds before it happens. What do most do then? They blame their own jungle or claim jungle is an OP role. The same goes for a jungler camping a lane. My laner knows he's being camped and dies to it anyway. Instead of reacting intelligently and playing super safe so as to bleed the enemy jungler's resources, they blame their own jungler or whine about jungle pressure. In fact, their jungler should in most cases not help because if the laner can play smart, the biggest advantage is generated through farming/counterjungling while the enemy jungler wastes time. Yet a laner often fails to recognize this just because he doesn't want the discomfort of being forced to alter his playstyle. Likewise, if I utilize my laner's advantage in HP and minions to dive the enemy, it isn't a case of how OP jungle is. It's a case of opportunistically exploiting a superior lane. Most successful ganks occur due to either an advantage created by my laner or an overpress by the enemy. I'm not doing anything by myself.
I could go on with examples forever. The point is that Riot should balance objectively and not based on who whines the loudest or artificially high winrates. If players are failing in the basics, the result shouldn't be to nerf jungle. I could understand maybe shifting some power (late game is disappointing for most junglers) but it really doesn't feel like jungle needs a nerf. I play other roles quite a bit and they do not feel less impactful.